41 leagues, three European cups and 253 national teams.
Every league and league phase, simulated to the final table
Each team carries an attack and a defence rating fitted to results and to closing lines. A match is two Poisson goal rates from those ratings plus home advantage. The simulator plays every remaining fixture thousands of times and counts where each team finishes: title, top four, relegation, points over/under, and for the UEFA league phases top 8, playoff places 9 to 24 and elimination.
Where the market has posted a line for a coming match, that line replaces the model's rate for it. Results lock in as they are played.
Ratings are not fixed. A form-shift setting redraws every team's strength each simulated season from a normal distribution around its rating, with sigma in log-goal units. Sigma 0 keeps ratings fixed; sigma 0.10 is about ±0.14 goals per match for a typical team and is the realistic setting; 0.25 is a stress test. Higher sigma flattens the table: favourites' title chances fall and mid-table teams' relegation risk rises.
Illustration of the method, not betting advice.
Rating teams that never meet
Cup ties and international matches often pair teams that have never played each other. The chain model links them through common opponents: a club is rated inside its own league, its league is rated against other leagues through every European tie, and those leagues are rated against the next one. National teams are linked the same way through qualifiers, Nations League groups and friendlies.
Every link adds uncertainty, so the terminal shows two prices for each cup fixture: the main cup model and the chain model. When both agree, the price is at its most reliable. When they disagree, the chain shows where the gap comes from.
Example: Sturm Graz vs Marseille, Europa League, 22 Oct
The two clubs have never met. The model finds ten routes between them. Every route starts from the closing handicap line of a European match that was actually played, then steps through domestic league ratings. Route A: the market closed Sturm Graz +0.76 at home to Rennes on 16 Sep (it finished 0–0). With Europa League home advantage taken out, that is Rennes about one goal stronger on neutral ground. The Ligue 1 ratings then place Marseille relative to Rennes, and Sturm Graz's home advantage is added back for 22 Oct.
| Route | Marseille handicap via this route | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| A · Sturm Graz – Rennes (EL 16 Sep) → Ligue 1 ratings → Marseille | −0.59 | 16% |
| B · Bournemouth – Sturm Graz (EL 15 Oct) → Premier League → Lyon – Crystal Palace (EL 15 Oct) → Ligue 1 → Marseille | −0.07 | 11% |
| C · Bournemouth – Sturm Graz → Premier League → Man City – PSG (CL 14 Oct) → Ligue 1 → Marseille | −0.93 | 11% |
| D · Bournemouth – Sturm Graz → Premier League → Arsenal – Lille (CL 13 Oct) → Ligue 1 → Marseille | −0.77 | 11% |
| H · Austrian Bundesliga → LASK – AEK Athens (CL 8 Sep) → Greek league → Marseille – Olympiakos (EL 15 Oct) | −0.16 | 9% |
| + 5 more routes | −0.20 to −1.10 | 43% |
Short routes weigh more than long ones, and recent matches more than old ones. That is why route A carries the most weight even though it is the oldest. The weighted chain says Marseille −0.54, a 51.0% win chance. The main cup model, which uses club ratings plus a country strength adjustment, says Marseille −0.63, 53.0%. The terminal blends them 57% main and 43% chain: Marseille −0.59, a 52.1% win chance, fair price 1.92. A soft book offered 2.30 on Marseille the same day.
Figures as of 20 Oct; the model updates as new results and closing lines come in.
Illustration of the method, not betting advice.
Full price ladders
Fair 1X2, a complete Asian handicap ladder and an over/under ladder for every fixture, derived from the same model that reproduces the market's closing line.
Market open status
Every fixture shows whether the market has opened yet, so you know when a sharp reference price exists.
Sharp mode
Folds the already-published lines for the coming round back into the model, so the leagues the market has opened sharpen the prices for the leagues it has not.
Season simulator
Simulate any league to the final table: title, top four, relegation and playoff probabilities, expected position distributions and points over/under lines per team.
UEFA league phase
Champions, Europa and Conference League phase simulation covers winner, top 8, playoff and elimination probabilities and per-team points O/U. You can override any match with your own 1X2 inputs.
Cup ties and national teams
Common-opponent and chain models rate teams that never meet, covering Nations League groups, qualifiers and 253 national teams including U21.
Team form with real closing lines
Every recent match is listed with its actual closing line and score, so you can assess form against market expectations.
Measured against the market's closing line: the model's standalone handicap sits 0.27 goals (RMS) from the close in the top-12 leagues and 0.23 in smaller leagues; The market's own opening line, posted 6–13 days earlier, sits 0.18 and 0.17 from the same close. Ratio about 1.5. Totals 0.19 / 0.17 against the market's 0.17 / 0.14.
We do not sell picks. We sell the price. No guarantees of profit.